Few automotive corporations are as depending on breakout hits as Ford. It’s virtually as if it’s baked into the corporate’s DNA: From the Mannequin T and the Taurus to the F-150 and the Explorer, Ford has lurched from one success to a different.
Just lately, although, the automaker has been arising empty handed. Whereas its U.S. car gross sales rose 6% year-over-year to 2.08 million in 2025, they’re at present lower than half their peak of 4.48 million in 2000. Of the brand new automobiles that Ford has launched in recent times, none have develop into a sensation.
Ford CEO Jim Farley is betting its forthcoming EV pickup, Fathom, will change its fortunes, calling the introduction of the truck and its Universal EV platform a “Mannequin T second” for the corporate. Ford wants a product that may compete with Chinese language EVs, which have been taking the world by storm. But, for causes which can be each inside and past Ford’s management, the Fathom is unlikely to be one other Taurus or Explorer, two hits that drove Ford gross sales within the Nineties.
Now, Fathom might be a minor success. Any approach you spin it, the bottom mannequin will probably be a great deal. On Thursday, Ford stated the Fathom would start at $29,945, together with the vacation spot charge. That’s considerably under the $50,000 average for brand new automobiles and the $56,000 average for EVs. It’s additionally about $5,000 decrease than the Keating Line — the typical itemizing worth of the biggest worth phase accessible at sellers.
However customers don’t determine to purchase a automotive primarily based on worth alone. Right here’s the place Ford might run into some challenges.
The Fathom will probably be a compact pickup truck, a type issue that the market largely ignored till Ford began promoting the Maverick in 2021. The Fathom is coming into an under-exploited area of interest, however it doesn’t look like one with huge potential both. Gross sales of the Maverick provide a clue: they’ve been brisk, however at 155,000 final yr, the small truck just isn’t a blockbuster, both. The Taurus offered greater than twice as many at its peak in 1992.
Now, the Fathom seems to have a number of benefits over the Maverick. For one, passengers ought to get pleasure from a bit extra inside house, based on Ford. The EV may also have a frunk, which might sway some consumers of conventional vehicles who’ve missed pickup vans for lack of closed storage.
However the Fathom continues to be a pickup, and never everybody loves that look. Nearly all of the market at present is dominated by SUVs, with simply over 70% of potential consumers in search of an SUV, in contrast with 33% for pickups, according to Cox Automotive.
Even amongst pickup followers, the Fathom could wrestle to attract consumers. For a lot of, vans are a vibe. They need them to look able to deal with the Rubicon path, even when they by no means make it past town limits. Each automaker is conscious of this. GM, in a latest briefing I attended, made a degree to say how it’s delivering the “lifted vans” that its clients are demanding. The Fathom, from the little we’ve seen thus far, doesn’t scream “rugged.”
Then there’s the EV factor. Most people who purchase an EV, myself included, would by no means purchase an inside combustion car once more, however lots of people don’t love change. They’re content material with gas-powered vehicles and vans, and plenty of sellers are joyful to maintain them in a single.
The Fathom’s success received’t be dictated fully by the whims of the market, although. Ford can spend on advertising and marketing and supplier coaching to beat the EV hurdle, and should even persuade individuals {that a} truck with a frunk is a perfect substitute for a sedan. And it’s virtually a assure that Ford will introduce a ruggedized model of the Fathom.
Will that be sufficient to make the Fathom a breakout hit? In all probability not. However possibly Ford doesn’t want it to be.
Perhaps the Fathom is a take a look at of its new production process, a toe within the water at part of the seashore that hasn’t been overrun. Compact vans aren’t setting gross sales information, however the marketplace for them continues to be rising. Ford can use that demand to take in each Fathom it makes whereas it refines its new platform and course of. Then, as soon as it’s assured it has the kinks sorted out, it will possibly broaden it to different segments, together with SUVs.
The Fathom will not be Ford’s swing for the fences. Perhaps the corporate’s merely hoping to get on base and lay the groundwork for the following mannequin rolling off the Common EV platform — the one it actually must be a house run.
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